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IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences 2006 E89-A(12):3699-3709; doi:10.1093/ietfec/e89-a.12.3699
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Copyright © 2006 The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers

Regular Section -- Papers -- Algorithms and Data Structures

On the Expected Prediction Error of Orthogonal Regression with Variable Components

Katsuyuki HAGIWARA1 and Hiroshi ISHITANI1

1 The authors are with the Faculty of Education, Mie University, Tsu-shi, 514-8507 Japan. E-mail: hagi{at}edu.mie-u.ac.jp


   Abstract

In this article, we considered the asymptotic expectations of the prediction error and the fitting error of a regression model, in which the component functions are chosen from a finite set of orthogonal functions. Under the least squares estimation, we showed that the asymptotic bias in estimating the prediction error based on the fitting error includes the true number of components, which is essentially unknown in practical applications. On the other hand, under a suitable shrinkage method, we showed that an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the prediction error is given by the fitting error plus a known term except the noise variance.

Key Words: orthogonal regression, variable components, shrinkage method, prediction error, harmonic analysis


Manuscript received April 22, 2005. Manuscript revised May 31, 2006. Final manuscript received August 23, 2006.


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